During an eruption, if the wind is from the east at 10,000 feet (outflow), the tephra will fall on Vancouver, Canada in about an hour. This Page Hyperlinked [click on] Mount Baker Stratovolcano (background)© ™ ®/ Kulshan Stratovolcano© ™ ®, Simon Fraser University (foreground)© ™ ® ~ Image by Stan G. Webb - In Retirement© ™ ®, An Intelligent Grandfather's Guides© ™ ® next, The Man From Minto© ™ ® - A Prospector Who Knows His Rocks And Stuff© ™ ®
Learn more about the Cascadia Volcanic Arc© ™ ® (Part of Pacific Ring of Fire) Cascadia Volcanoes© ™ ® and the currently active Mount Meager Massif© ™ ®, part of the Cascadia Volcanic Arc© ™ ® [ash flow, debris flows, fumaroles and hot springs], just northwest of Pemberton and Whistler, Canada ~ My personal interest in the Mount Meager Massif© is that the last volcanic vent blew north, into the Bridge River Valley [The Bridge River Valley Community Association (BRVCA), [formerly Bridge River Valley Economic Development Society], near my hometown. I am the Man From Minto© ™ ® - A Prospector Who Knows His Rocks And Stuff© ™ ® The 2010 Mount Meager landslide was a large catastrophic debris avalanche that flowed to the south, into the Lillooet Valley British Columbia, Canada, on August 6 at 3:27 a.m. PDT (UTC-7). More than 45,000,000 m3 (1.6×109 cu ft) of debris slid down Mount Meager, temporarily blocking Meager Creek and destroying local bridges, roads and equipment. It was one of the largest landslides in Canadian history and one of over 20 landslides to have occurred from the Mount Meager massif in the last 10,000 years. Although voluminous, there were no fatalities caused by the event due in part to its remote and uninhabited location. The landslide was large enough to send seismic waves more than 2,000 km (1,200 mi) away into the neighboring U.S. states of Alaska and Washington and beyond. Multiple factors led to the slide: Mount Meager's weak slopes have left it in a constant state of instability. The massif has been a source of large volcanic debris flows for the last 8,000 years, many of which have reached several tens of kilometres downstream in the Lillooet River valley., to the south. It is arguably the most unstable mountain massif in Canada and may also be its most active landslide area. And on the north side lies Downton Lake Hydro Reservoir, impounded by the La Joi Dam, the uppermost of the Bridge River Project dams. The earliest identified Holocene landslide was in 7900 BP (before the present, or read it as the number of years ago). Further landslides occurred in 6250 BP, 5250 BP, 4400 BP, 2600 BP, 2400 BP, 2240. BP BP, 2170 BP, 1920 BP, 1860 BP, 870 BP, 800 BP, 630 BP, 370 BP, 210 BP, 150 BP and in 1931, 1947, 1972, 1975, 1984, 1986 and 1998. These events were attributed to structurally weak volcanic rocks, glacial unloading, recent explosive volcanism and glacial activity. Those who dance with earthquakes and volcanoes are considered mad by those who cannot smell the sulfur. We begin to deal with BIG (MEGA) EARTHQUAKES at Simon Fraser University (foreground) Kulshan Stratovolcano© / Mount Baker Stratovolcano (background)©New Cascadia Dawn© - Cascadia Rising - M9 to M10+, An Intelligent Grandfather's Guide© next, ~ Images by Stan G. Webb - In Retirement©, An Intelligent Grandfather's Guides©Countdown to Earthquake Drill - International Great ShakeOut Day is on Thursday, October 20, 2022 at 10:20AM, and annually on the 3rd Thursday in October thereafter - - I grew up in small towns and in the North where the rule is share and share alike. So, I'm a Creative Commons type of guy. Copy and paste ANY OF MY MATERIAL anywhere you want. Hyperlinks to your own Social Media are at the bottom of each post. Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under my Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

THIS FORECAST IS IN ERROR - Tsunami Forecast Model Animation: Cascadia 1700 AD

Problem is, they've got the engineering, mathematics, and physics wrong; albeit it certainly is more than > 3 [three] metres (10 feet).  WAY MORE.  And this has happened repeatedly; 40+ times in the past 10,000 years.

SEE ALSO >> If you want to survive,HOW ARE WE GOING TO PAY FOR IT ALL ? - Senate Ways & Means Cascadia Subduction Zone Presentation Work Session, ...


>> NO AUDIO >> BEST VIEW FULL SCREEN
https://youtu.be/4W2iUl0VB8c [1:20 minutes]  

Japanese records state that the Orphan Tsunami of 1700 AD was four stories, over 12 metres (40 feet) high; when we calculate the 8,000 kilometre distance between Cascadia's Fault and the shores of the Huu-ay-aht – Ancient Spirit, Modern Mind  village of Anacla, do some 'reverse' engineering for the whole Pacific Ocean basin to account for the tsunami dispersal away from the Cascadia Fault, apply some mathematics and physics using Western scientific methods, at Anacla the tsunami would have been twelve
stories, over 37 metres (120 feet).  Now, I hope the Huu-ay-aht First Nations renames their beach back to Anacla or whatever they chose, instead of the old Spanish European, 'plant the flag and conquer' mentality, and change the name*.  [Images for Pachena Beach, bc].Pachena Bay Campground | Bamfield, BC | Huu-ay-aht First Nation ,
Following ten years of interviews, reading, and research, every single First Nation all along the West Coast of North America has stories of the destruction of their villages by earthquakeflood [a tsunami would be better described as a flood, rising from below; rather than a wave, generated across the top, from wind] and landslides.  Everybody, everywhere has the same story.

* [Pechina is a municipality of Province of Almería, in the autonomous community of Andalusia, Spain. It is on the site of the ancient town of Urci.  Pechina, called Bajjāna in Arabic, was the centre of a Yemeni colony during the period of the Umayyad caliphate in Spain. ~ Wikipedia].
Published on Jan 22, 2016
"Just before midnight on January 27, 1700 a tsunami struck the coasts of Japan without warning since no one in Japan felt the earthquake that must have caused it. Nearly 300 years later scientists and historians in Japan and the United States solved the mystery of what caused this “orphan tsunami” through careful analysis of historical records in Japan as well as oral histories of Native Americans, sediment deposits, and ghost forests of drowned trees in the Pacific Northwest of North America, a region also known as Cascadia. They learned that this geologically active region, the Cascadia Subduction Zone, not only hosts erupting volcanoes but also produces megathrust earthquakes capable of generating devastating, ocean-crossing tsunamis. By comparing the tree rings of dead trees with those still living they could tell when the last of these great earthquakes struck the region. The trees all died in the winter of 1699-1700 when the coasts of northern California, Oregon, and Washington suddenly dropped 1-2 m (3-6 ft.), flooding them with seawater. That much motion over such a large area requires a very large earthquake to explain it—perhaps as large as 9.2 magnitude, comparable to the Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964. Such an earthquake would have ruptured the earth along the entire length of the 1000 km (600 mi) long fault of the Cascadia Subduction Zone and severe shaking could have lasted for 5 minutes or longer. Its tsunami would cross the Pacific Ocean and reach Japan in about 9 hours, so the earthquake must have occurred around 9 o’clock at night in Cascadia on January 26, 1700 (05:00 January 27 UTC). The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) can created an animation of a historical tsunami like this one using the same tool that it uses to determine tsunami hazards in real time for any tsunami today: the Real-Time Forecasting of Tsunamis (RIFT) forecast model. The RIFT model takes earthquake information as input and calculates how the waves move through the world’s oceans, predicting their speed, wavelength, and amplitude. This animation shows these values through the simulated motion of the waves and as they travel through the world’s oceans one can also see the distance between successive wave crests (wavelength) as well as their height (half-amplitude) indicated by their color. More importantly, the model also shows what happens when these tsunami waves strike land, the very information that PTWC needs to issue tsunami hazard guidance for impacted coastlines. From the beginning the animation shows all coastlines covered by colored points. These are initially a blue color like the undisturbed ocean to indicate normal sea level, but as the tsunami waves reach them they will change color to represent the height of the waves coming ashore, and often these values are higher than they were in the deeper waters offshore. The color scheme is based on PTWC’s warning criteria, with blue-to-green representing no hazard (less than 30 cm or ~1 ft.), yellow-to-orange indicating low hazard with a stay-off-the-beach recommendation (30 to 100 cm or ~1 to 3 ft.), light red-to-bright red indicating significant hazard requiring evacuation (1 to 3 m or ~3 to 10 ft.), and dark red indicating a severe hazard possibly requiring a second-tier evacuation (greater than 3 m or ~10 ft.). Toward the end of this simulated 24 hours of activity the wave animation will transition to the “energy map” of a mathematical surface representing the maximum rise in sea level on the open ocean caused by the tsunami, a pattern that indicates that the kinetic energy of the tsunami was not distributed evenly across the oceans but instead forms a highly directional “beam” such that the tsunami was far more severe in the middle of the “beam” of energy than on its sides. This pattern also generally correlates to the coastal impacts; note how those coastlines directly in the “beam” are hit by larger waves than those to either side of it. The full report about the Orphan Tsunami of 1700 can be found here: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/...  For a NOAA Science on a Sphere version of this animation, please see:
http://sos.noaa.gov/Datasets/dataset....

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